Has the coronavirus brought forward the day when Australia has to choose between Chinese money and American security? That’s the topic of today’s Rebellion.
Brexit, the US-China trade war and conflict in the Middle East.
It seems we are quickly moving into an era where markets are dominated by politics.
What is the real impact of politics on the economy and global markets?
On any given day you may see the ASX up or down on a variety of politically-driven events.
At The Rum Rebellion we take a long-term view. Ultimately, markets are driven by earnings and interest rates. At a fundamental level, this is all that matters.
Brexit and the US-China trade war can impact earnings and interest rates, so to a degree, these are relevant to market moves.
The real impact of politics on the economy and global markets though, is that it creates a smokescreen for investors.
The back and forth detracts from a clear-eyed view of what’s really wrong with a country — especially here in Australia.
What’s wrong with Australian politics?
Of course, Australian politics has recently impacted markets. The ASX got a short-term boost from the Liberal victory in the federal election.
However, successive governments (on both sides of the aisle) have created a system that results in an excessive amount of capital flowing into the property sector.
Investors have been rewarded by speculating on land, rather than investing in longer-term productive enterprises. Commodity-based income underwrites this national pastime, which is why the commodity/housing nexus is so important to ongoing growth.
It has left us with a foreign debt of $1 trillion, and the continued selling off of assets to fund our property obsession. As a result, we have a chronic current account deficit. In the year to 30 June 2018, the deficit was around $50 billion.
The trend reversed recently on the back of a commodities boom, in particular iron ore.
Hooked on houses and mining again…
What’s Australia’s political relationship with China?
Everyone knows we have a close economic relationship with China. They now own some of our ports, gas pipelines and electrical grids.
They pour money into real estate and mining as well.
But our over reliance on this investment comes at a price — we don’t have anywhere to go if the relationship breaks down.
As a result, we are sceptical of China as a force for good in Australian politics and our commentary reflects that.
Climate change policy and what The Rum Rebellion stands for…
Instead of facing these issues, Australian politics is tearing the country apart. One of the chief culprits is climate change. Climate change and what to do about it has been a key destabiliser of national politics since it increasingly became a political issue from around 2007.
The Rum Rebellion is a libertarian voice. While we think all governments are corrupt and self-serving, out of principle we particularly abhor the ‘government knows best’ views emanating from the left of centre.
We don’t pull punches and we don’t accept money from advertisers, so we can tell it like it is.
On this page you can find all our political analysis. We cover topics in US politics, Australian politics and pretty much any political factor that could move markets.
You may disagree with us, or even be offended. We aren’t fussed though, we take freedom of speech seriously.
The Five Eyes refers to the strategic alliance between the US, the UK, Australia, Canada and NZ. Worryingly, the report identified Australia as being the most dependent on China out of the five countries.
Necessity may be the mother of invention. But it is the deadbeat dad of intervention, too. The authorities use ‘necessity’ to meddle, control, tax, and spend…while providing no real support.
‘Australia has arrived at its moment of truth. It is now presented with the explicit choice between sovereignty and money.’
One big question mark is Australia’s relationship with China. Will the big red dollar save the day again?
Freedom doesn’t come cheaply, my friends. If you want the government to look after you, you also want the government to take away many of your rights.
Scott Morrison is calling for an investigation into the origins of the pandemic, and China aren’t happy. Now, they are retaliating.
The first wave may take our lives; the second tortures, torments, and twists them into grotesque new shapes. Bars are closed, as are shops…offices…airlines…restaurants…beaches…parks. And the feds have brought down upon us calamity never before…
Here’s the thing about central planning: it rarely survives first contact with reality. Reality is that unemployment in Australia will stay high for years.
We’re now only seeing the first part of the costs — unemployment, lost profits, lost sales, dead businesses, breakdowns, suicide, careers on hold, lives suspended…The next part will be even costlier. Fake money will foul…