Dear Reader, Today’s the last day of our special ‘stop press’ publishing schedule. Your normal service will resume tomorrow. Thanks for reading, listening, and tuning into our videos. We hope you got something useful out of it. If you missed last night’s roundtable discussion between myself, Shae Russell, and Dan Denning, you can catch up … Read More
Economy News, Analysis and Updates
This page is where you can find all our latest economic news, coverage, and analysis.
The Australian economy is a unique beast. It almost completely relies on housing price growth and commodity exports to China. If both of these engines are firing, the economy does very well. If only one fires, the economy does OK. If both struggle, then the economy is in trouble.
The sectors behind house prices and commodity exports…
The financial sector and the resources sector are closely tied to these two things.
By market capitalisation, financials and materials or resources make up more than half of the ASX index:
Source: Canaccord Genuity
And of the more than 2,200 stocks available, 33% are junior mining stocks — this gives you a sense of where priorities lie in the Aussie economy.
What factors influence the Aussie economy?
Like many developed economies, Australia’s economy has recently been propped up by cheap money (low interest rates) and debt.
While debt is often ignored by mainstream outlets — it plays a critical role in the Australian economy.
The Australian government has traditionally kept the debt to GDP ratio relatively low compared to major economies.
As of 2018, this stood at 40.70% compared to Japan which has the highest — coming in at a whopping 238%.
But even though the government’s ‘credit card’ isn’t maxed out like other countries — Australians household debt is one of the highest in the world.
Coming in at 119.4%, Australians’ wealth (or more precisely debt burden) is very much tied up in their homes.
So it is no surprise that rising house prices have gone hand in hand with rising household debt.
It is also worth noting that all up, the services sector makes up around 75% of the pie.
Turns out, Australia doesn’t ‘make’ all that much.
How we look at the economy at The Rum Rebellion…
An expensive house, lots of household debt, a job providing services for others, all propped up by digging things out of the ground for export, and a central bank hell-bent on the extinction of savings.
It may seem like a grim picture, but The Rum Rebellion analyses the Aussie economy through this lens. We will often show how the economy is going by looking at charts of key stocks or sectors. Charts tell you where the money is going. If it’s going into or out of banks and resources, for example, it can give you great insight into where the economy is heading.
Looking purely at economic data releases isn’t always useful. Economic growth data for example, is backward looking. It tells you where we’ve been, not where we’re going.
At The Rum Rebellion, we want you to be ahead of the game. So we analyse the economy from this unique perspective. Check out our latest news and articles on the Aussie economy below…
Dear Reader, Before we kick off with the second to last instalment of our special series, a reminder to keep an eye on your inbox around 7pm for tonight’s investment briefing. It could not come at a better time. Greg, Shae, and I (Dan) have mapped out a course ahead through the coming days and … Read More
Dear Reader, We continue our special coverage of financial markets in the age of pandemic. As margin calls roil stock markets and liquidity disappears from the system, we believe there’s a flight to what few ‘safe’ assets are in the system. But hardly anything seems safe. The ASX 200 closed 4.4% higher on Friday after … Read More
They’ve come out with all guns blazing. Across the Ditch the Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed interest rates by 0.75%. That brings the Kiwi’s official rate to a rock bottom 0.25%.
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Yesterday, Publisher James Woodburn issued a ‘Stop Press’ announcement. ‘Due to the historic recent market price action, we are ceasing the normal publishing schedule’, he said. That means from today onwards, we’ll be sending you special updates on the unfolding market action. To kick things off, we have a special video recording for you. In … Read More
Once again, history tells us that during these times, those with the stomach to buy are usually rewarded over the long term.
That rates could even go negative was, up until the last few years, not even remotely in anyone’s head. That someone would pay you interest when you borrow money just seems…well, unreal.
At a time when our global economy isn’t working. In fact, it hasn’t worked since 2008. Developed economies aren’t seeing any growth. Instead they’ve been living off low interest rate fumes that have pushed up…