We’ve left Baltimore behind. After sufficient testing and certifying to the Irish authorities that your editor was not carrying the plague, we’ve arrived back in Ireland.
And we wrap up our history of the US’s Nightmare Winter of 2033 or 2028 or 2025?
Recall that the feds are trying to do two dangerous things at once.
First, they aim to reach net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2035. Second, they expect to pay for the ‘transition’ to green energy — along with routine federal budget deficits and trillion-dollar boondoggles — with printing press money.
This was never going to end well.
So we’ve been looking at what the end might look like. When we left you yesterday, the power grid had failed and mobs were looting stores for food.
Thousands died in a few horrible weeks of sub-zero temperatures
The straw that breaks the camel’s back
But now, after a thaw, the sun has come out and the juice is on. Can we return to normal?
The answer is probably no.
We remind readers that the ‘Great Freeze’ is only one of many different possibilities.
Already, the camel sags and staggers. We don’t know what the final straw will look like.
It could be a breakdown in the power system on the Fourth of July. Or a trial verdict that goes the ‘wrong’ way…followed by rioting all over the country.
Or maybe just another crash in the housing market.
Houses are rising in price three times as fast as the cost of living. People are once again ‘taking out’ equity.
As we reported last week, the median house price is now above US$400,000. If you are aged under 30, the average down payment is only about 6%. That leaves the average young buyer under 30 with a US$376,000 mortgage.
As prices rise, so will mortgage rates. And each 1% increase in the mortgage rate adds US$3,760 to the annual cost.
How long before that camel’s back gives way?
Hell breaks looser
We also remind dear readers that things don’t ‘just happen’.
The #7 ball hits the #3 ball and drives the #10 ball into the side pocket. If you only see part of the scene, you might think that the #10 ball went in by itself.
But there is always more to the story.
How do you see it? Here’s a good place to start: follow the money.
In the US today, money is created by the banking system, which is run by the Federal Reserve, which is run by the government. ‘Printing’ new money boosts up asset prices, which are owned primarily by the rich.
The more dollars the Fed creates, the richer the rich get.
And the more the movers and shakers think they have unlimited funds to do whatever they want, the more jackass programs they undertake…and the more real wealth they squander.
Investors back zombie businesses and buy meme stocks and NFTs. Corporations borrow to do mergers and acquisitions and buy back their own stock.
The government spends on wars, ‘social infrastructure’, and climate control.
Deficits and debts rise…the rich get richer and richer…and the elite becomes more and more corrupt…
Prices go up…inflation gets worse and worse…and people get angrier and angrier…
And then, the trigger: a cold winter…a hot July…a Lehman-style bankruptcy. Something suddenly snaps.
And all hell breaks loose.
People lose faith — in their leaders, their neighbours, their money, their laws, their system of government, and their institutions.
And then, you don’t just have a financial problem on your hands. Not just a stock market crash, either. Nor just a recession/depression.
You have a full-scale social and political catastrophe…chaos…and a Winter Nightmare.
Like Russia in the winter of 1917, Germany in the winter of 1921, Argentina in the 1970s and 1980s, Zimbabwe 2005–present, and like Venezuela right now.
Already, differences of opinion are barely tolerated. People are ‘gunning up’ in anticipation of a showdown.
Imagine what it might be like when food disappears from the supermarket shelves…when people ‘shiver in the dark’ and the gas pumps run dry…and when prices rise at a 50% rate.
And that is where our ‘history’ ends…
The stage has been set. The actors have learned their parts. The orchestra is ready to play. The bar is closing.
And the show must go on.
For The Rum Rebellion
PS: The Rum Rebellion is a fantastic place to start your investment journey. We talk about the big trends driving the Australian Economy. Learn all about it here.