Will the Next Sell-Off Be a Big One or ‘THE Big One’?

Are you anxious about the state of the markets right now?

And where things might be going in 2022?

First of all, you’re not alone.

Since 2 October, the number of people plugging ‘market crash’ into Google has spiked.

In the US, a recent survey showed 57% of investors now think that big crash many have been waiting for is imminent.

67% say they’re now keeping a cash buffer outside the stock market to protect themselves.

From my contrarian perspective, that suggests you’re probably not going to get a ‘market crash’ in the way that most expect. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be pain.

Besides, this increasing and widespread fear is a relatively new development in the context of this ‘everything bubble’.

It’s no longer the permabears who are fretting over its end.

If you’ve followed my investment advisory research, you’ll know about my theory that the plumbing of the global monetary system has sprung a leak. In short, the Fed’s reverse repo facility has gone from virtually zero in March to a peak of US$1.6 trillion at 30 September.

The mainstream narrative is that it’s the result of too much cash in the system. The more ominous explanation is that there is not enough collateral. That is, sound assets to secure overnight borrowing.

It’s all pretty arcane. Still, I highlighted this to readers back in early August and recommended a more defensive stance was required. Two days later, the market peaked. Whether that was good luck or good management remains to be seen.

But due to the hidden nature of it, the leak has continued to go unnoticed, or its cause misdiagnosed.

Why is this important?

Why should you care about this now?

Well, both Vern Gowdie and myself are in agreement that a significant correction is coming.

The only thing we don’t align on is the scale.

Whether the next sell-off will merely be a big one…or THE Big One.

Vern is convinced it will be the latter.

I’m not so sure.

Either way, we’ve both been very busy in the background recently.

We’ve been working on our own strategy papers, showing you how to best navigate what may lie in wait for investors in 2022.

While they’re different in the single issues that they focus on, what links them is this:

A crisis is coming that most Australian investors are oblivious to

And you’d best start preparing for it sooner rather than later…

On the surface, there are no signs of an impending crisis at all.

Yes, we’ve had a slight downtrend over the last month. While that’s happened before in this bull market, it’s the first time prices have traded below the 50- and 100-day moving averages in a year (see chart below):

Bull Market Price Outlook

Source: Optuma

[Click to open in a new window]

Overall, markets have managed to brush off anything and everything thrown at them.

The central bank cavalry simply rides in and makes everyone’s dollar whole again.

Do you think this goes on forever?

As the founder of Vanguard Investments, John C Bogle said:

Reversion to the mean is the iron rule of the financial markets.

And yet, the pattern to rely on has been a melt-up rather than a meltdown.

This was the underlying idea for my ‘Life at Zero’ thesis.

That is, prolonged low interest rates would debase the value of money, especially when measured against stock markets. Therefore, stocks would rise in the face of weak underlying economies.

And this is where Vern and I differ.

Longer term, I think markets will keep marching higher on the back of central bank idiocy. Interest rates are pinned to the floor and will stay there for years.

But shorter term, I see some real risks building (we’ll get to that in a second).

Vern, however, thinks a much darker fate awaits most investors in 2022.

In fact, he’s just doubled down on this thesis.

Free Report: Economist reveals five stocks he believes you should sell today. Download now.

Vern’s identified four ‘Code Red’ investments
you should think about liquidating now

‘Code Red’ is a term used by the military, medical professionals, emergency services, and even climate scientists.

When a situation escalates to a Code Red, the public is alerted to the dangers we face. And told how to prepare for the probable eventuality.

Yet, when it comes to markets, says Vern, no such alarms are being raised.

Not by government. Not by mainstream media. And not by financial advisors.

So he’s decided to do it himself.

He’s still busy putting the finishing touches on this research. It should be released around this time next week.

If you’re worried about a spectacular end to this ‘everything bubble’…and want practical advice on how to prepare rather than just scary warnings…then watch this space…

But let’s look to the shorter term.

I, too, have a warning paper that we’re releasing in The Rum Rebellion tomorrow.

There are no certainties in markets, only probabilities.

But I’ve identified what I’m convinced is the highest-probability risk to your investment portfolio in 2022. And an investment strategy you should employ now with this risk in mind.

It’s bigger than a sizeable correction in the stock market — although I see that coming. To be sure, I think this correction will throw up plenty of good long-term buying opportunities. But it will also produce plenty of value traps.

You’ll see what I mean tomorrow. But as you’ll see, the risk I talk about is not strictly stock market related.

Instead, it’s an existential threat to Australia. And Australian portfolios in particular.

And it’s something I really think you should be planning for now, both mentally and from a portfolio perspective.

In the research we’re releasing tomorrow, I’ll give you a plan to do that.

It’s to do — as you may have guessed — with China.

For the past 10 years, China has overseen a runaway property boom. It has tapped the brakes on that boom occasionally. But every time it looked like it was slowing too much, it hit the accelerator again.

Dare I say it, but this time is different.

The Chinese Communist Party, who desire social stability above all else, decided last year they could not let the boom go on. It’s over.

That has huge implications for Australia. The economic relationship we’ve had with China over the past 20 years will be radically different over the next 20.

As a nation, we’re not remotely prepared for it.

But you can be.

More on this tomorrow…


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Greg Canavan,
Editor, The Rum Rebellion

PS: The Rum Rebellion is a fantastic place to start your investment journey. We talk about the big trends driving the Australian Economy. Learn all about it here.

Greg Canavan approaches the investment world with an ‘ignorance is bliss’ philosophy. In a world where all the information is just a click away at all times, Greg believes we ingest too much of it. As a result, we forget how to think for ourselves, and let other people’s thoughts cloud our own.

Or worse, we only seek out the voices who are confirming our biases and narrowminded views of the truth. Either situation is not ideal. With regards to investing, this makes us follow the masses rather than our own gut instincts.

At The Rum Rebellion, fake news and unethical political persuasion are not in the least bit tolerated. It denounces the heavy amount of government influence which the public accommodates.

Greg will help The Rum Rebellion readers block out all the nonsense and encourage personal responsibility…both in the financial and political world.

Learn more about Greg Canavan's Investment Advisory Service.

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