Hi, Greg Canavan here. I hope you’re enjoying some downtime somewhere. It’s exactly what I’ve advised my fellow editors to do…rest and relax. It’s been a long year, especially for those of us who had to endure Victoria’s lockdown and curfew rules. So, a good unwind is required before we get back into it in 2021.
So for the next week, you’ll get something different from us here at The Rum Rebellion. You’re probably familiar with the work of Dan Denning, who is a regular contributor to this publication. Dan works closely with Bill Bonner, and writes for The Bonner-Denning Letter, with which you might also be familiar.
Bill is one of the founders of Agora, which is the parent company of Port Phillip Publishing, the publisher of The Rum Rebellion. Bill has quite the network to draw upon. One of the recent projects they’ve been working on is the Bonner Private Research Podcast, hosted by Aussie expat Joel Bowman.
Over to you, Joel…
When Bill Bonner issued his novel Trade of the Decade idea, back in 2000, a couple of major trends had been in play for a long, long time. First, gold had been in steady decline for nigh on two decades, having peaked in 1980–81 in both nominal and real, which is to say, inflation-adjusted terms. (In fact, to this day, gold has still not taken out its real high of just over $2,200 per ounce.)
Second, US equities had been on the upswing for at least as long, with the S&P 500 having raced from roughly 350 points in 1990 to over 1,440 at the turn of the century, a more than fourfold increase. (And up about 14 times from where it began the previous decade, in 1980.)
It seems obvious now, with the benefit of the proverbial ‘2020 hindsight’, that these asset classes were probably due for a correction. And yet, to have suggested so at the time would have put you squarely in the minority.
So how do we spot trends that remain hidden to the majority? How do we override out emotional biases? How do we bet against the crowd…and win?
I recently spoke with Bonner Private Research member, Chris Mayer, about what he looks for when distilling a Trade of the Decade from the ‘big macro’ ideas down to actionable, investible ones. We also unpacked the mechanics of the trade itself, talked about where he thinks we are in the current credit cycle and mused on the inherent optimism in taking the long view…
You can listen to the full conversation here.
Contributor, The Rum Rebellion
PS: The Rum Rebellion is a fantastic place to start your investment journey. We talk about the big trends driving the Australian Economy. Learn all about it here.