Normal transmission returns to the Rum Rebellion today.
Well, not exactly normal.
I (Greg) am writing today and tomorrow, and you’ll hear from Vern on Friday.
From next week, we’ll settle into a more regular schedule.
On that front, I’m pleased to announce that Dan Denning will now write to you every Monday. Dan co-edits the Bonner-Denning Letter, along with Agora (our parent company) founder Bill Bonner.
Dan founded Port Phillip Publishing back in 2006. I’m very excited to have Dan’s sceptical, reasoned, and liberty loving voice in the Rum Rebellion from now on.
Vern will then take over on Tuesday and Wednesday, while I’ll write to you on Thursday and Friday.
But for the past few days, of course, you’ve heard from Catherine Cashmore and Callum Newman. They’ve been writing about the Aussie property market. It’s been very interesting reading.
I am a big believer in the cycle that these guys write about in their publication, Cycles, Trends & Forecasts. There is just too much historical evidence to say that it doesn’t exist.
To see what the cycle — and Catherine and Callum — are saying now, I urge you to click here.
In a brand new report, market expert Vern Gowdie warns of the dangers waiting in a post-COVID-19 world. Plus, he outlines the steps you must take now to protect your wealth. Learn more.
Today’s essay might not be politically correct. And if your beat is health — or indoctrinated health — you’ll be horrified at my ignorance…
But here goes…
Let me start by asking: Is anyone else thoroughly sick of being held hostage by this virus?
I get that the lockdowns had to occur early in the piece, given we didn’t know what we were dealing with.
But the longer this goes on, the more damage — long lasting damage — is done to the economy. Specifically, the younger generation and lower skilled are copping the brunt of the economic fallout.
And future generations will have to deal with the inflation that will inevitably come to pay off our huge debt burden.
The fact that kids are still at home — in socialist Victoria, anyway — despite the very low risks involved, is ridiculous.
I’m at home with two primary school aged kids. The tasks they’re set each day are more than they do at school (so they tell me), and the school expects that to happen with working parents at home?
The loss of productivity for the economy will be astounding.
I’m fortunate in that my wife isn’t working. We decided to live frugally on one wage so she could be home for the kids while they’re young. So she is trying to manage both of their tasks each day…to the detriment of her mental health.
The point is, this is no way to run an education system. These should be emergency settings. But the Teachers Union is talking about this going on for all of term two, despite advice from the Chief Medical Officer that it is safe to send kids to school!
The problem is that the people making these decisions have no understanding of trade-offs. Their livelihood is in no way affected by the economic shutdown. Their world is black and white. There are no shades of grey.
Yet the longer this goes on, the more evidence is emerging that this virus isn’t quite as bad as first thought. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying there isn’t a threat. And clearly, there are certain parts of the population that are high risk.
But should we shut an economy down for it?
Here’s some data from the US CDC (Centre for Disease Control and Prevention) for the week ending 25 April:
- Hospitalisation rates for COVID-19 in adults (18–64 years) are higher than hospitalisation rates for influenza at comparable time points during the past five influenza seasons.
- For people 65 years and older, current COVID-19 hospitalisation rates are similar to those observed during comparable time points during recent high severity influenza seasons.
- For children (0–17 years), COVID-19 hospitalisation rates are much lower than influenza hospitalisation rates during recent influenza seasons.
So children, according to the CDC are at lower risk of being badly infected than they are for influenza. Yet we’re shutting schools down anyway. And for people 65 years or older, serious illness is the same as a high severity influenza season.
What about the high death toll then?
Well, perhaps (as in, it is likely) that COVID-19 is now attributed as a cause of death when in the past it may have been influenza, pneumonia or something else.
Doctor Dan Erickson certainly gives that impression, in comments to the Washington Examiner:
‘“When I’m writing up my death report I’m being pressured to add COVID. Why is that? Why are we being pressured to add COVID? To maybe increase the numbers, and make it look a little bit worse than it is. We’re being pressured in-house to add COVID to the diagnostic list when we think it has nothing to do with the actual cause of death. The actual cause of death was not COVID, but it’s being reported as one of the diseases processes. …COVID didn’t kill them, 25 years of tobacco use killed.”’
The article continues:
‘Does it get any clearer than that?
‘Seriously, America. The only reason America is still in shutdown mode is political.
‘Either politicians are too afraid to make any move that might come back to bite them politically or politicians are using this coronavirus to political advantage — to, say, pass gun control laws, like Virginia’s governor, Ralph Northam. Or to, say, float campaign hopes on the current ravaged economy, like former Vice President Joe Biden and oh, all the Democrats facing races.
‘But for the rest of America — the rest of hardworking, freedom-loving America — it’s time to reel in the radically unconstitutional.’
Australia’s constitution is not as revered as the US’s. We didn’t fight a war for it.
But it was nearly 100 years in the making.
Australians, sadly, are far quicker to give up their rights for the ‘greater good’ than our US cousins. This sounds admirable. But once you give them up, you also give closet tyrants a taste of power. And when they get that taste, they are far more reluctant to give that power back to the people.
PS: Financial markets veteran, Greg Canavan reveals the critical factors that affect the rise or fall of the Aussie dollar. Understanding where it’s headed will allow you to adjust your investment strategy early for optimal performance. Click here to download your free copy of ‘Will the Aussie Dollar Enjoy a Post-Pandemic Resurgence?’ to discover where the Aussie dollar is likely headed towards the end of 2020.