Coronavirus Chaos: The Definition of a Black Swan

The coronavirus is really spreading throughout the world now, having made its way to both Europe and the United States. That’s had a tremendous effect on stock markets around the world, and on Thursday we saw a big drop…and Friday’s open has been nightmarish, also.

So naturally I have people asking me whether I think this is the beginning of the big crash.

And here’s my answer. It could be, but I still don’t think we are quite there.

Expect a strong V-shaped rally to follow

What we’re dealing with right now — and it is unique — is the actual definition of a black swan: a quick moving phenomenon (in this case, COVID-19) that has a pronounced and unpredictable effect on the markets. And this virus has some tricks to it, so expect a little more turbulence as governments try to tamp it down.

But still, I expect things to turn around today or in the next few days, and for a strong V-shaped rally to follow, and a bounce through April or May…right before the actual crash.

I will simultaneously be tracking this crash versus the first big crash in tech stocks from March to May 2000 to see if it is looking more like the first big 42% or so crash in 2.6 or so months — like I did in the two last sharp crashes in early and late 2018.

Regards,

Signature
Harry Dent,
For The Rum Rebellion

PS: Watch the exclusive video interview to learn why Harry Dent believes Aussie real estate is overvalued and how we could soon enter our first recession in decades by 2022. Watch the Video Now.


Harry Dent is an economic realist. His market predictions and strategies, as well as his general views of the economic and political state of the world, are based solely on his own knowledge. And, as a Harvard University MBA graduate and Fortune 100 consultant, it’s not as though he’s lacking in this resource. But if experience isn’t enough to convince you, perhaps his accuracy is. In 2017, Harry Dent was making calls about the Australian property market that are coming into play as we speak. And yet, the media portrayed him as ‘crazy’. At The Rum Rebellion, this sort of biased, inaccurate media that isn’t accepted. Dent and his fellow editors aim to give you the information you should know, rather than what the media wants you to know. Dent believes in facts and facts alone when forming an opinion, and such is The Rum Rebellion mission.


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