What Will Probably Trigger the Downturn

Dear Reader,

Right now, the market looks to me like it’s building up to a massive selloff.

Like snow on a mountain before an avalanche. Suddenly, without warning, confidence is lost and the slide is on. And it only ever takes one snowflake to tip the balance.

My belief is that the decisive snowflake could fall anytime in the next few months.

It could be trade war related. It could be earnings related. It could be emerging market debt related. It could be Iran related. Or it may be something no one’s even considering right now.

Like in 2007, with the whole sub-prime mortgage thing, the trigger for this coming downturn could take even the world’s smartest economists by surprise.

The most likely trigger?

Well, I’ve been giving it some thought, and I’ll tell you what I think in today’s video. I recorded it as part of a series leading up to the release of my new research, out this coming Wednesday.

I’ve tried to be as thorough as I can, because there are big, big decisions at stake. People accuse me of scaremongering, and that’s fine. I just say: look at the evidence I’m looking at, and see if you don’t draw the same conclusions.

Just remember, as a private wealth manager up in Cairns, I lived through THREE major crashes, in 1987, 2000 and 2007/08. You may scoff, but I feel like I have a sense for these things.

Back then, it wasn’t easy to convince clients and other people that things were going bad…when the data showed the opposite.  Many thought I was trying to put the fear of God into them.

This time?

Well, I’ll leave that up to you to decide when you read my new research report coming out on Wednesday.

Today though, do see if you can find a couple of minutes to take a look at the latest video in my new series, called: ‘What Is Likely to Trigger the Next Market Crash’. Click the thumbnail now to watch…

The Rum Rebellion

[Click to open video in a new window]

Now here’s Selva with today’s Rum Rebellion essay…


Vern Gowdie,
Editor, The Rum Rebellion

PS: There’s a BIG surprise coming for the AUD in 2020. Click here to find out what it is (free report).

Vern has been involved in financial planning since 1986.

In 1999, Personal Investor magazine ranked Vern as one of Australia’s Top 50 financial planners.

His previous firm, Gowdie Financial Planning, was recognised in 2004, 2005, 2006 & 2007, by Independent Financial Adviser magazine as one of the top five financial planning firms in Australia.

In 2005, Vern commenced his writing career with the ‘Big Picture’ column for regional newspapers and was a commentator on financial matters for Prime Radio talkback.

In 2008, he sold his financial planning firm due to concerns about an impending economic downturn and the impact this would have on the investment industry.

In 2013, he joined Fat Tail Investment Research as editor of Gowdie Family Wealth. In 2015, his book The End of Australia sold over 20,000 copies and launched his second premium newsletter, The Gowdie Letter.

Vern has since published two other books, A Parents Gift of Knowledge, all about the passing of investing intelligence from father to daughter, and How Much Bull can Investors Bear, an expose on the investment industry’s smoke and mirrors.

His contrarian views often place him at odds with the financial planning profession today, but Vern’s sole motivation is to help investors like you to protect their own and their family’s wealth.

Vern is Founder and Chairman of The Gowdie Advisory and The Gowdie Letter advisory service.

The Rum Rebellion