Climate Change is Horse Sh*t

Dear Reader,

The pollution from the bushfires has generated another form of pollution…noise.

The medicos with green leanings raised their voices in ‘horror’ last week…

Money Morning

Source: Sydney Morning Herald

[Click to open in a new window]

What do the good doctors want (emphasis is mine)?

Doctors are urging the federal government to spearhead direct action to combat the ‘unprecedented public health threat’ of the bushfires.

Doctors for the Environment Australia spokesman Dr Richard Yin said doctors had been ‘horrified’ by the reaction of the Morrison government to the serious health impacts of severe air pollution triggered by the fires.’

In the grand scheme of things, our emissions are — and pardon my use of this technical term — ‘bugger all’.

Do the environmentalist GPs not realise we’re all in this together? Is the ‘knee bone connected to thigh bone’ not ringing any bells?

We can spearhead all the direct action they want, but it counts for diddly when measured against the annual emission increases from China.

Failure to recognise this rather obvious fact, means those making the most noise — like the Extinction Rebellion nutters — are really just empty vessels.

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The World Health Organisation (WHO) hasn’t let the latest change in climate opportunity pass by either.


Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.

Sounds like the WHO has taken a leaf out of Kevin Rudd’s ‘greatest moral challenge of our generation’ playbook. What a furphy that turned out to be.

In support of its ‘greatest threat to global health’ claim, the WHO plucked these ‘statistics’ out of the polluted air…

Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250 000 additional deaths per year, from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress alone. The direct damage costs to health is estimated to be between USD 2-4 billion per year by 2030.’

The argument of ‘increased emissions results in increased problems’ is not original.

Extrapolating what you think you know today into the future, is an all too common mistake.

It happens with the economy, markets and yes, even with emissions…of a slightly different kind.

In the late 19th century a serious public health problem had gripped the world’s major cities.

The outlook was so dire a meeting was convened in New York…

In 1898, delegates from across the globe gathered in New York City for the world’s first international urban planning conference. One topic dominated the discussion. It was not housing, land use, economic development, or infrastructure. The delegates were driven to desperation by horse manure.

‘From Horse Power to Horsepower’
by Eric Morris

While this seems funny today, back then mounting piles of horse manure was anything but a laughing matter.

For centuries, horses were the mode of transport. As populations grew, so did the number of horses and so did the piles of manure.

The problem the city fathers faced in the late 1800s was not new. In Ancient Rome, Julius Caesar banned horse-drawn carts between dawn and dusk.

Between 1800 and 1900, the US population expanded by 30 million. More people meant more trade, which in turn, meant more horses.

The advent of the railway did relieve some of the horse-drawn transportation issues. However, within the towns and cities, goods were still delivered by the traditional horse and cart.

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The first public transport system in New York was the Omnibus (carrying up to 120,000 passengers per day).

The Omnibuses were pulled by a team of horses. If the public commute was not to your liking, personal transportation was still by horse-drawn carriage.

In the wide open spaces of Wyoming, the increase in horse numbers was not a problem. There was plenty of space for natural fertiliser out there. However, in densely populated areas like New York, it was a whole different matter.

In New York, it was estimated that on a daily basis there was 1.8 million kilos of horse dung and 150,000 litres of equine urine to be ‘handled’.

Naturally, all this horse waste became a pedestrian’s nightmare, especially when it rained. In addition to the obvious issue of dodging the ‘land mines,’ there were serious health issues confronting the city administrators.

There is nothing like a dung pile to attract flies. The spread of typhoid and diarrhoea (especially among infants), led to increased mortality rates.

With this brief background, you can see why the 1898 urban planning conference had horse manure as the most pressing topic on its agenda.

Horse emissions were the greatest threat to global health.

Apparently the meeting was scheduled to last for 10 days. After the third day, they called it quits. No acceptable solution to the problem could be found.

The issues associated with too many horses had plagued Rome nearly 2000 years ago. With such a long established trend, the world’s town planners resigned themselves to horse sh*t being an unsolvable problem.

According to Eric Morris (emphasis is mine):

The situation seemed dire. In 1894, the ‘Times’ of London estimated that by 1950 every street in the city would be buried nine feet deep in horse manure. One New York prognosticator of the 1890s concluded that by 1930 the horse droppings would rise to Manhattan’s third-story windows. A public health and sanitation crisis of almost unimaginable dimensions loomed.

Based on the knowledge at the time — population growth and volumes of horse waste — you can appreciate the math behind the ‘poop piled three-stories high’ prediction.

The ‘piles of poop’ forecast is known as ‘extrapolation’ — taking an established trend and projecting it into the future. The problem with extrapolation is an unforeseen disruptor can change the trend. Making forecasts look silly to future generations.

As we know, the combustion engine solved the unsolvable horse poop problem.

Which is rather ironic.

It’s the solution to the last great health crisis that’s (allegedly) created the current health crisis.

If history is any guide, it’s highly likely that, in the next decade or two, we’ll see some form of disruptive energy supply introduced into society.

Completely changing the trajectory of CO2 emissions.

Future generations will look back and laugh at us for extrapolating past emissions — with all the attendant dire warnings — into the future.

Which raises the question…without CO2 emissions, what will the empty vessels of tomorrow blame for the droughts, cyclones, floods, bushfires and weather extremes of the future?

If history tells us anything, the sheeple will always find something to bleat about…that’s one trend you can be assured will continue.

This climate change nonsense is nothing more than 21st century horse sh*t.


Vern Gowdie,
Editor, The Rum Rebellion

Vern has been involved in financial planning since 1986.

In 1999, Personal Investor magazine ranked Vern as one of Australia’s Top 50 financial planners.

His previous firm, Gowdie Financial Planning, was recognised in 2004, 2005, 2006 & 2007, by Independent Financial Adviser magazine as one of the top five financial planning firms in Australia.

In 2005, Vern commenced his writing career with the ‘Big Picture’ column for regional newspapers and was a commentator on financial matters for Prime Radio talkback.

In 2008, he sold his financial planning firm due to concerns about an impending economic downturn and the impact this would have on the investment industry.

In 2013, he joined Fat Tail Investment Research as editor of Gowdie Family Wealth. In 2015, his book The End of Australia sold over 20,000 copies and launched his second premium newsletter, The Gowdie Letter.

Vern has since published two other books, A Parents Gift of Knowledge, all about the passing of investing intelligence from father to daughter, and How Much Bull can Investors Bear, an expose on the investment industry’s smoke and mirrors.

His contrarian views often place him at odds with the financial planning profession today, but Vern’s sole motivation is to help investors like you to protect their own and their family’s wealth.

Vern is Founder and Chairman of The Gowdie Advisory and The Gowdie Letter advisory service.

The Rum Rebellion