A wise man once said that if you need to take viagra to have sex, you should know you have a low libido.
And if you need to pop a second pill, then you’re dead down there.
That’s how I feel about the global economy at the moment.
Even after the aggressive tax cuts, we’re slowing again back to that dreaded 2% GDP growth already. And all the flashing lights are indicating that we’re heading for even more into early 2020.
Look around: Germany is falling into a recession in this quarter. Italy’s already there. The retail and financial sectors have been underperforming for over a year. Home construction peaked two years ago. RV sales have come crashing down. And we’re at a critical point in the stock markets, created by falling bond yields, a weak economy.
We’re in the dead zone, with massive government stimulus and still more planned. Trump is already talking about payroll tax cuts. That’s the one thing they haven’t done yet.
Something’s got to give. We’ll either break out of this sideways range in the last month to the past highs of July, or plummet down to the lows of early June. If those two levels are broken, then we see that 20%–25% final rally, or first, a 20%-plus correction.
I’m afraid to hold my breath. There will be clearer signals soon.
For The Rum Rebellion
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