Closing in on the Dark Window Scenario?

Stocks saw their biggest correction since late 2001, making a fourth wave correction leading into a fifth wave final blow-off rally — what I have been referring to as the Dark Window scenario.

My target is around 10,000 on the leading index, the NASDAQ, and around 33,000 on the Dow.

It’s likely we saw the first wave up into early May with two more strong surges ahead. We have just made new highs on the Dow and S&P 500, with the NASDAQ came close to a new high.

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Is this a breakout in the next wave up?

I think it’s likely…

But there is a pattern that still warrants near-term caution…

Dow Megaphone Pattern Resistance and Possible 27% Crash 04-07-19

Source: Yahoo! Finance

[Click to open in a new window]

Note that this megaphone pattern sees higher highs and lower lows until the final breakdown projected to about 20,000 on the Dow. The top trend-line would be around 27,300 on the Dow and 3,025 on the S&P 500, just a little over 1% above the market’s projected open today.

This pattern does not have to play out on the downside. But if it does, it would suggest a new correction of as high as 27% in the Dow. That could take the NASDAQ down to its ‘line in the sand’ at around 5,700. That’s down about 30%.

If that level holds, we could still see that final Dark Window blow-off rally, but to more like 9,600 — that would be a near 70% rally in just several months, instead of the 25% rally projected from here, and 30%-plus after a minor correction ahead.

If there is another total breakdown in the China trade deal, and perhaps some dangerous tensions with Iran, we could see this steeper correction in the next few months.

However, the more likely scenario is that this pattern of slightly higher highs simply creates resistance near term and a more minor correction into mid-July and then we see that next strong surge up on the way to Dow 33,000 and NASDAQ 10,000-plus, likely into January of 2020, or March at the latest.

The first crash after that is likely to be 40%-plus in two or three months, or a NASDAQ back around 6,000 or lower. That would break the line in the sand and will throw a monkey wrench into the election!

A pullback and then a clear break above this top trendline would be the sign that we are on our way up.

A sharper correction nearer-term and follow-through into August on the downside would suggest the stronger-correction scenario.

Adam O’Dell’s indicators are still supporting the bull market for now. So, the bullish breakout after a minor correction is still the more likely scenario…

And bitcoin still looks to be rocketing towards $32,000, after hitting near $14,000 recently. This pullback is not likely to last long.

Regards,

Harry Dent,
For The Rum Rebellion

PS: Click here to watch the full video interview with The Rum Rebellion’s Greg Canavan and Richard Hayes, CEO of The Perth Mint.


Harry Dent is an economic realist. His market predictions and strategies, as well as his general views of the economic and political state of the world, are based solely on his own knowledge. And, as a Harvard University MBA graduate and Fortune 100 consultant, it’s not as though he’s lacking in this resource. But if experience isn’t enough to convince you, perhaps his accuracy is. In 2017, Harry Dent was making calls about the Australian property market that are coming into play as we speak. And yet, the media portrayed him as ‘crazy’. At The Rum Rebellion, this sort of biased, inaccurate media that isn’t accepted. Dent and his fellow editors aim to give you the information you should know, rather than what the media wants you to know. Dent believes in facts and facts alone when forming an opinion, and such is The Rum Rebellion mission.


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