Someone Is Going to Get Hurt

Yesterday, Australian time, President Trump launched his 2020 election campaign with a speech to a packed stadium in Florida. Soon after, the US Federal Reserve met to decide on interest rates. Boss Jerome Powell caved in to market pressures and opening up the potential for an interest rate cut in July.

Both events were good for Trump. The crowd loved it and so did the stock market. Although yesterday’s big rally largely priced in the hope for a July cut. Overnight, the S&P 500 could only manage a 0.3% rise.

There is a reason Trump does the big stadium rallies. It’s his chance to speak directly to the people, without the media putting their Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) infected spin on it.

Trump knows he poses an existential threat to the Washington DC political establishment (AKA the deep state) and their media allies. The deep state creates and maintains the political narrative by leaking information — sometimes classified — to establishment media sources like The New York Times and The Washington Post.

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Because these are ‘official sources’ the media runs with these stories and puts them into the public narrative.

Trump’s order to declassify substantial amounts of information relating to the Obama administration’s alleged spying activities and the Russian collusion hoax is going to blow this thing wide open. Attorney General William Barr is currently reviewing material to determine what can be released without compromising national security.

I’ve been following this whole ‘Spygate’ story closely for about a year now. Needless to say, when this information comes out, it’s not going to look good for Obama, or the upper echelons of the CIA and the FBI.

It’s been reported recently that FBI Director Christopher Wray (who replaced disgraced former head James Comey) is refusing to cooperate with the investigation into how this whole spying operation against Trump started.

You only do that when you have something to hide.

What Do They Have to Hide?

Don’t forget, former FBI boss Comey was the goon instrumental (along with CIA Director John Brennan) in starting the investigation into Trump. The FBI — apparently — kicked it off after our very own Alexander Downer reported a conversation he had with Trump campaign worker George Papadopoulos. The conversation was — again apparently — about ‘dirt on Hillary’.

Yet soon after, Comey said there ‘was nothing to see here’ regarding Hillary Clinton’s loose behaviour with classified information and the destruction of thousands of emails following a subpoena to release them.

The deep state clearly has double standards.

But Trump didn’t miss having a go at Clinton in his Orlando speech:

If you want to know how the system is rigged, just compare how they came after us for three years with everything they had, versus the free pass they gave to Hillary and her aides after they set up an illegal server, destroyed evidence deleted and acid washed 33,000 e-mails, exposed classified information, and turned the State Department into a pay-for-play cash machine.

33,000 emails deleted, think of it. I keep mentioning, you know, there was a lot of corruption on the other side, but you know the simplest thing, they get a subpoena from the United States Congress and they decide that they’re not going to give it so Lindsey Graham, they did delete and they acid wash, which is very expensive.

Nobody does it, they acid wash those emails, never to be seen again, but we may find them somewhere deep in the State Department. But can you imagine, if I got a subpoena, think of this, If I got a subpoena for e-mails, if I deleted one e-mail, like a love note to Melania, it’s the electric chair for Trump, 33,000 e-mails.

The Mainstream Media and Trump

The media have become tone deaf in their fight for survival. Their stories and false claims are so blatantly obvious that only the brainwashed ‘elites’ believe it. Ordinary people are turning away from the mainstream media in droves.

For years, a small number of media conglomerates used their market power to centralise and control information. In the age of the internet, that is harder to do. New media outlets keep popping up. Information is becoming decentralised again.

Take The Rum Rebellion for example. No respectable editor in their right mind would publish it. It would eventually offend someone who pays the bills. But when you’re only accountable to your readers, you can write without fear or favour.

You want an interesting, no BS essay each day, not a manufactured narrative. That’s why you keep coming back, I assume. It may also be because there are few, if any, blogs writing about money and stocks through a pragmatic libertarian lens.

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Most financial commentary bows down to the role of the state and central banks in trying to ‘fix’ our economic problems. The Rum Rebellion, on the other hand, points out the reality that the state and central banks ARE the problem. The more they meddle, the worse things become.

For example, have a look at the Fed’s overnight statement on interest rate settings, with my emphasis added:

The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook have increased. In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

This determination to try and abolish cycles and ‘sustain the expansion’ is supreme arrogance. But it’s not surprising.

As investors, your task is to try and navigate your way through this central bank-created minefield. My task is to help you with that.

Right now, activist central banking has created a situation where stocks are at record highs, and bond markets are signalling recession.

They can’t both be right. Someone is going to get hurt…


Greg Canavan,
Editor, The Rum Rebellion

PS: Just a reminder that in tomorrow’s Rum Rebellion you’ll hear from Vern Gowdie, and on Saturday Selva Freigedo will bring you the inaugural, Rum Rebellion Weekend edition. I hope you enjoy. I’ll be back on Monday.

Greg Canavan approaches the investment world with an ‘ignorance is bliss’ philosophy. In a world where all the information is just a click away at all times, Greg believes we ingest too much of it. As a result, we forget how to think for ourselves, and let other people’s thoughts cloud our own.

Or worse, we only seek out the voices who are confirming our biases and narrowminded views of the truth. Either situation is not ideal. With regards to investing, this makes us follow the masses rather than our own gut instincts.

At The Rum Rebellion, fake news and unethical political persuasion are not in the least bit tolerated. It denounces the heavy amount of government influence which the public accommodates.

Greg will help The Rum Rebellion readers block out all the nonsense and encourage personal responsibility…both in the financial and political world.

Learn more about Greg Canavan's Investment Advisory Service.

The Rum Rebellion